Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.384610 0.439952 0.500012 0.569977 0.649187 0.736024 0.838384
2025-08-10 0.291247 0.361763 0.444327 0.547926 0.674232 0.823002 1.011308
2025-08-17 0.221076 0.296426 0.391059 0.518182 0.683986 0.892367 1.173550
2025-08-24 0.176485 0.254263 0.358573 0.507861 0.715091 0.991493 1.386853
2025-08-31 0.142210 0.219346 0.329413 0.496611 0.742599 1.089307 1.612649
2025-09-07 0.121223 0.199283 0.317285 0.506700 0.800690 1.236501 1.927365
2025-09-14 0.097862 0.171193 0.288436 0.486932 0.811259 1.315782 2.153707
2025-09-21 0.081795 0.151733 0.269603 0.479361 0.838881 1.423681 2.437557
2025-09-28 0.068408 0.134253 0.250965 0.468761 0.859361 1.522023 2.718180
2025-10-05 0.061220 0.126538 0.247790 0.484075 0.925638 1.703811 3.160458
2025-10-12 0.053161 0.115618 0.236924 0.483512 0.963105 1.839957 3.539793
2025-10-19 0.047341 0.108048 0.231098 0.491368 1.016865 2.011174 4.002475
2025-10-26 0.042422 0.101706 0.227209 0.503574 1.083033 2.217918 4.566125
2025-11-02 0.035504 0.089598 0.209399 0.484423 1.083929 2.300359 4.902669
2025-11-09 0.029235 0.077665 0.189853 0.458276 1.066324 2.343841 5.167850
2025-11-16 0.025154 0.070143 0.178872 0.449309 1.084325 2.462488 5.603025
2025-11-23 0.021649 0.063318 0.168288 0.439447 1.098783 2.575391 6.040524
2025-11-30 0.019643 0.060039 0.165766 0.448540 1.158430 2.794449 6.737537
2025-12-07 0.016661 0.053368 0.153416 0.431013 1.151742 2.863426 7.105800
2025-12-14 0.014576 0.048817 0.145787 0.424326 1.170703 2.993891 7.632098
2025-12-21 0.012684 0.044397 0.137678 0.414924 1.181246 3.105446 8.127003
2025-12-28 0.011818 0.043017 0.137917 0.428591 1.254231 3.378042 9.045414
2026-01-04 0.010605 0.040211 0.133457 0.428109 1.288948 3.559057 9.757161